Better Late Than Never Predictions for 2010

vickyayala — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 18:00:17 +0000

Yes I know most predictions come out in late Dec or early Jan but I needed time to really reflect on this. So much happened in early Jan that I needed some time to process some of the suggestions I initially had for 2010.

1. Mobile marketing as we know it will evolve and pick up in a big way.

I never quite got mobile marketing, at least not in the US. When I first started researching it back in 2006 I put it under the “this will never take off” folder. But now with mobile devices serving as portable computers for some, and as the community of developers continue to create meaningful user experiences in the tiny packages, this might be the year mobile marketing takes off in a big way.

Now when I say mobile marketing I don’t mean just mobile ads. When you look at how the web has evolved our browsing patterns, we see that people are smarter and more savvy about how they surf online. Traditional banner ads as we knew them are pretty much irrelevant. And as website publishers become more innovative with how they allow advertisers to market their brands, the way we integrate advertisements will evolve as well. Mobile marketing won’t just be a static ad on a web page but rather it will come more from a well-rounded approach to targeting niche consumers. SMS will play a big role, as will email marketing. And with the majority of mobile devices now email friendly, you can clearly make a case for email marketing to be synonymous with mobile marketing, since that’s where many of the emails will now be read.

2. Social networking sites will see a decrease in usage.

Sure Twitter and Facebook were the sites of 2009. But I think the hype has faded out and as more sites emerge, offering different user experiences, the online space will be flooded so much that it will turn people away. Many people got on Facebook b/c it’s what their friends were doing or they wanted to see what the big fuss was about. Same with Twitter. And while the initial peek of users and visitors showed tremendous potential for these sites, I think 2010 we’ll start to see an almost mass exodus from these sites as users find other things to do like live in the real world.

3. Location based sites such as Foursquare will make a big splash and then get acquired by either a Facebook or Twitter type of site.

Telling people where you are is great and because Foursquare makes it like a game, I don’t see it going anywhere anytime soon. But I don’t see these kind of sites playing by themselves for long. They offer a great add-on feature to a community of users already actively engaged in social networking and they would do much better operating under a larger umbrella, such as Facebook, Twitter or even Ning.

4. Niche is Queen.

If content is king then niche is queen and that’s who really runs the kingdom anyways. With the larger media companies either folding or changing their model altogether (AOL, NY Times, etc) the niche industries are going to rule how money is spent online. The funny thing about niche audiences is that they have the kind of loyalty towards brands that are aligned with their personal interests and core values. A dedicated 50,000 would be more impactful than a lackadaisical 500,000 who probably have no emotional connection to the brand in question. Read Microtrends and you’ll see what I’m talking about.

Your thoughts?

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